Athletic Club v Elche
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Athletic Club drew with Elche 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Nico Williams for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Thomas Lemar for 1+ tackles (87%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
4 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oihan Sancet | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Nico Williams | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Gonzalo Villar | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Iñaki Williams | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 4 | ✓ |
| Thomas Lemar | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Facundo Buonanotte | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mikel Jauregizar | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Federico Redondo | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 6 | ✓ |
| Beñat Gerenabarrena | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Javi Morcillo | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Víctor Chust | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Buba Sangaré | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gonzalo Villar | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Johaneko Louis Jean | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 58% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 43% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Athletic Club 2–1 Elche Feb 2026
- Elche 0–0 Athletic Club Oct 2025
- Athletic Club 0–1 Elche May 2023
- Elche 1–4 Athletic Club Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Athletic Club v Elche?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Athletic Club v Elche?
The most confident call it got wrong was Thomas Lemar at 87% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.