Atlético Madrid v Villarreal
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Atlético Madrid drew with Villarreal 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 14 landed — the strongest being Julián Alvarez for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ademola Lookman | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Georges Mikautadze | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 5 | ✓ |
| Julián Alvarez | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alejandro Grimaldo | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ayoze Pérez | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Santiago Mouriño | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 4 | ✓ |
| Morten Hjulmand | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Marcos Llorente | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Carlos Romero | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Robin Le Normand | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pape Gueye | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Koke | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 4 | ✓ |
| Giuliano Simeone | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 5 | ✓ |
| Marc Pubill | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 66% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 61% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 54% | 6 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Villarreal 5–1 Atlético Madrid May 2026
- Atlético Madrid 2–0 Villarreal Sep 2025
- Atlético Madrid 1–1 Villarreal Jan 2025
- Villarreal 2–2 Atlético Madrid Aug 2024
- Villarreal 1–2 Atlético Madrid Apr 2024
- Atlético Madrid 3–1 Villarreal Nov 2023
- Villarreal 2–2 Atlético Madrid Jun 2023
- Atlético Madrid 0–2 Villarreal Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Atlético Madrid v Villarreal?
14 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Atlético Madrid v Villarreal?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.