Deportivo Alavés v Girona FC
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Deportivo Alavés drew with Girona FC 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Toni Martínez for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Pablo Ibáñez for 1+ fouls drawn (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toni Martínez | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lucas Boyé | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Azzedine Ounahi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bryan Gil | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Hugo Rincón | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Antonio Blanco | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Fran Beltrán | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jonny Otto | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Iván Martín | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Arnau Martínez | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Antonio Blanco | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lucas Boyé | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lucas Boyé | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pablo Ibáñez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 50% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 50% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Girona FC 1–0 Deportivo Alavés Nov 2025
- Girona FC 0–1 Deportivo Alavés Apr 2025
- Deportivo Alavés 0–1 Girona FC Jan 2025
- Deportivo Alavés 2–2 Girona FC May 2024
- Girona FC 3–0 Deportivo Alavés Dec 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Deportivo Alavés v Girona FC?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Deportivo Alavés v Girona FC?
The most confident call it got wrong was Pablo Ibáñez at 86% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.