Deportivo Alavés v Osasuna
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Deportivo Alavés beat Osasuna 5–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Ante Budimir for 1+ shots total (94%, had 6). Its clearest miss: Raúl García de Haro for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raúl García de Haro | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lucas Boyé | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mariano Díaz | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ante Budimir | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 6 | ✓ |
| Jonathan Dubasin | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pablo Ibáñez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Antonio Blanco | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mariano Díaz | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lucas Boyé | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Raúl García de Haro | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Iker Muñoz | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lucas Boyé | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 6 | ✓ |
| Carles Aleñá | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jon Moncayola | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 69% | 3 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 50% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 48% | 7 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Deportivo Alavés 2–2 Osasuna Apr 2026
- Osasuna 3–0 Deportivo Alavés Dec 2025
- Deportivo Alavés 1–1 Osasuna May 2025
- Osasuna 2–2 Deportivo Alavés Dec 2024
- Osasuna 1–0 Deportivo Alavés Mar 2024
- Deportivo Alavés 0–2 Osasuna Oct 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Deportivo Alavés v Osasuna?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Deportivo Alavés v Osasuna?
The most confident call it got wrong was Raúl García de Haro at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.