Deportivo Alavés v Villarreal
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Deportivo Alavés beat Villarreal 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Lucas Boyé for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Toni Martínez for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toni Martínez | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mariano Díaz | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lucas Boyé | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Georges Mikautadze | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Santiago Mouriño | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ilias Akhomach | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ayoze Pérez | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Gerard Moreno | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Pape Gueye | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ayoze Pérez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pablo Ibáñez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Carlos Romero | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alexander Freeman | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Abderrahman Rebbach | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 62% | 4 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 50% | 1 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Deportivo Alavés 1–1 Villarreal Mar 2026
- Villarreal 3–1 Deportivo Alavés Jan 2026
- Deportivo Alavés 1–0 Villarreal Mar 2025
- Villarreal 3–0 Deportivo Alavés Nov 2024
- Deportivo Alavés 1–1 Villarreal Feb 2024
- Villarreal 1–1 Deportivo Alavés Oct 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Deportivo Alavés v Villarreal?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Deportivo Alavés v Villarreal?
The most confident call it got wrong was Toni Martínez at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.