Deportivo de A Coruña v Elche
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Deportivo de A Coruña drew with Elche 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Lucas Cepeda for 1+ fouls drawn (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gonzalo Villar | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 6 | ✓ |
| Fernando Niño | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lucas Cepeda | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Adrià Altimira | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| David Affengruber | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Víctor Chust | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Buba Sangaré | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Buba Sangaré | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Germán Valera | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Lucas Cepeda | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Federico Redondo | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ali Houary | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lorenzo Amatucci | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Deportivo de A Coruña v Elche?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Deportivo de A Coruña v Elche?
The most confident call it got wrong was Lucas Cepeda at 86% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.