Espanyol v Elche
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Espanyol lost to Elche 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 14 landed — the strongest being Marcos Fernández for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
4 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Fernández | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lucas Cepeda | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Abiel Osorio | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Fernando Niño | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gonzalo Villar | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Edu Expósito | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Roberto Fernández | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Bryan Zaragoza | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pere Milla | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Bryan Zaragoza | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Quilindschy Hartman | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Álex Calatrava | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Roger Hinojo | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Thomas Lemar | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 5 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 58% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 56% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Elche 2–2 Espanyol Mar 2026
- Espanyol 1–0 Elche Oct 2025
- Elche 0–1 Espanyol Feb 2023
- Espanyol 2–2 Elche Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Espanyol v Elche?
14 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Espanyol v Elche?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.