Leganés v Real Betis
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Leganés lost to Real Betis 2–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Cédric Bakambu for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Dani Raba for 1+ fouls drawn (88%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cédric Bakambu | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Antony | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 5 | ✓ |
| Isco | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Cucho Hernández | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Isco | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dani Raba | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jesús Rodriguez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yvan Neyou | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Darko Brašanac | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Antony | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Valentin Rosier | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 7 | ✓ |
| Seydouba Cisse | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Renato Tapia | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 51% | 3 cards | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 50% | 5 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Real Betis 2–0 Leganés Sep 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Leganés v Real Betis?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Leganés v Real Betis?
The most confident call it got wrong was Dani Raba at 88% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.