Leganés v Villarreal
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Leganés lost to Villarreal 2–5, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Thierno Barry for 1+ shots total (95%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Óscar Rodríguez for 1+ shots total (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thierno Barry | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 5 | ✓ |
| Gerard Moreno | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 5 | ✓ |
| Alex Baena | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pau Cabanes | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Óscar Rodríguez | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dani Raba | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pape Gueye | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pape Gueye | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yvan Neyou | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Santi Comesaña | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Valentin Rosier | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Óscar Rodríguez | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Adrià Altimira | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jorge Sáenz | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 54% | 5 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 50% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 50% | 7 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Villarreal 3–0 Leganés May 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Leganés v Villarreal?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Leganés v Villarreal?
The most confident call it got wrong was Óscar Rodríguez at 92% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.