Villarreal v Leganés
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Villarreal beat Leganés 3–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Ayoze Pérez for 1+ shots total (95%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Miguel de la Fuente for 1+ shots total (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ayoze Pérez | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pape Gueye | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Alex Baena | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 6 | ✓ |
| Nicolas Pépé | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Munir El Haddadi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Diego García | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Miguel de la Fuente | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Munir El Haddadi | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 5 | ✓ |
| Dani Raba | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pape Gueye | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Santi Comesaña | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yéremy Pino | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Renato Tapia | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pape Gueye | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 70% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 48% | 2 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Leganés 2–5 Villarreal Dec 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Villarreal v Leganés?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Villarreal v Leganés?
The most confident call it got wrong was Miguel de la Fuente at 92% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.