Mallorca v Real Betis
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Mallorca lost to Real Betis 1–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Abdessamad Ezzalzouli for 1+ shots total (94%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Manu Morlanes for 1+ tackles (93%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cédric Bakambu | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Vedat Muriqi | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Antony | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Manu Morlanes | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Zito Luvumbo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Abdessamad Ezzalzouli | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 6 | ✓ |
| Omar Mascarell | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pablo Maffeo | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Samú Costa | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Johan Mojica | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Angel Ortiz | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sergi Altimira | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Samú Costa | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 6 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 58% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 36% | 7 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Real Betis 3–0 Mallorca Nov 2025
- Mallorca 0–1 Real Betis Jan 2025
- Real Betis 1–2 Mallorca Sep 2024
- Mallorca 0–1 Real Betis Jan 2024
- Real Betis 2–0 Mallorca Nov 2023
- Real Betis 1–0 Mallorca Mar 2023
- Mallorca 1–2 Real Betis Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Mallorca v Real Betis?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Mallorca v Real Betis?
The most confident call it got wrong was Manu Morlanes at 93% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.