Osasuna v Espanyol
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Osasuna lost to Espanyol 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Ante Budimir for 1+ shots total (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Kike Barja for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
2 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ante Budimir | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Raúl García de Haro | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jonathan Dubasin | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kike Barja | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Marcos Fernández | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kike Barja | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Moscardo | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kike Barja | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Asier Osambela | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Iker Muñoz | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Javier Hernández | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Roberto Fernández | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Diego Rico | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Álex Calatrava | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 60% | 5 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 50% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 50% | 2 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Osasuna 1–2 Espanyol May 2026
- Espanyol 1–0 Osasuna Aug 2025
- Osasuna 2–0 Espanyol May 2025
- Espanyol 0–0 Osasuna Dec 2024
- Espanyol 1–1 Osasuna Feb 2023
- Osasuna 1–0 Espanyol Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Osasuna v Espanyol?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Osasuna v Espanyol?
The most confident call it got wrong was Kike Barja at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.