Rayo Vallecano v Deportivo Alavés
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Rayo Vallecano drew with Deportivo Alavés 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Lucas Boyé for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Randy Nteka for 1+ fouls committed (90%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Camello | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lucas Boyé | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Toni Martínez | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mariano Díaz | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Randy Nteka | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lucas Boyé | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pablo Ibáñez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Óscar Valentín | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mikel Rodriguez | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Andrei Rațiu | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Abderrahman Rebbach | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Antonio Blanco | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nahuel Tenaglia | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pablo Ibáñez | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls committed Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 72% | 3 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 50% | 2 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Deportivo Alavés 1–2 Rayo Vallecano May 2026
- Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Deportivo Alavés Oct 2025
- Deportivo Alavés 0–2 Rayo Vallecano Mar 2025
- Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Deportivo Alavés Oct 2024
- Deportivo Alavés 1–0 Rayo Vallecano Mar 2024
- Rayo Vallecano 2–0 Deportivo Alavés Sep 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Rayo Vallecano v Deportivo Alavés?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Rayo Vallecano v Deportivo Alavés?
The most confident call it got wrong was Randy Nteka at 90% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.