Rayo Vallecano v Espanyol
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Rayo Vallecano beat Espanyol 2–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Sergio Camello for 1+ shots total (95%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Rafael Bauzà for 1+ tackles (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sergio Camello | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Marcos Fernández | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Pedro Díaz | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Bryan Zaragoza | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sergio Camello | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Omar El Hilali | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Moscardo | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Óscar Valentín | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Quilindschy Hartman | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 5 | ✓ |
| Rafael Bauzà | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Roberto Fernández | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Edu Expósito | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Javier Hernández | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Adrià Pedrosa | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 69% | 7 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 58% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | Yes | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards Match goals
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Rayo Vallecano 1–0 Espanyol Apr 2026
- Espanyol 1–0 Rayo Vallecano Dec 2025
- Rayo Vallecano 0–4 Espanyol Apr 2025
- Espanyol 2–1 Rayo Vallecano Aug 2024
- Rayo Vallecano 1–2 Espanyol May 2023
- Espanyol 0–2 Rayo Vallecano Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Rayo Vallecano v Espanyol?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Rayo Vallecano v Espanyol?
The most confident call it got wrong was Rafael Bauzà at 86% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.