Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Real Madrid beat Rayo Vallecano 4–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Kylian Mbappé for 1+ shots total (95%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Aurélien Tchouaméni for 1+ tackles (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 5 | ✓ |
| Sergio Camello | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Júnior | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Júnior | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jude Bellingham | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jude Bellingham | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 4 | ✓ |
| Óscar Valentín | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Eduardo Camavinga | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bernardo Silva | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Florian Lejeune | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Andrei Rațiu | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Unai López | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Adrià Pedrosa | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 70% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 44% | 1 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano Feb 2026
- Rayo Vallecano 0–0 Real Madrid Nov 2025
- Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano Mar 2025
- Rayo Vallecano 3–3 Real Madrid Dec 2024
- Rayo Vallecano 1–1 Real Madrid Feb 2024
- Real Madrid 0–0 Rayo Vallecano Nov 2023
- Real Madrid 2–1 Rayo Vallecano May 2023
- Rayo Vallecano 3–2 Real Madrid Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Real Madrid v Rayo Vallecano?
The most confident call it got wrong was Aurélien Tchouaméni at 86% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.