Real Madrid v Real Oviedo
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Real Madrid beat Real Oviedo 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Kylian Mbappé for 1+ shots total (95%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Jude Bellingham for 1+ fouls drawn (88%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinícius Júnior | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kylian Mbappé | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 4 | ✓ |
| Gonzalo García | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ilyas Chaira | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Franco Mastantuono | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jude Bellingham | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Eduardo Camavinga | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Júnior | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jude Bellingham | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Brahim Díaz | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 5 | ✓ |
| Nicolas Fonseca | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Santiago Colombatto | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nacho Vidal | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Haissem Hassan | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 70% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 50% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 27% | 0 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Real Oviedo 0–3 Real Madrid Aug 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Real Madrid v Real Oviedo?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Real Madrid v Real Oviedo?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jude Bellingham at 88% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.