Real Sociedad v Atlético Madrid
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Real Sociedad lost to Atlético Madrid 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Gonçalo Guedes for 1+ shots total (94%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Ademola Lookman for 1+ shots total (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonçalo Guedes | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ademola Lookman | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Johnny Cardoso | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yangel Herrera | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jon Aramburu | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| Kang-in Lee | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Morten Hjulmand | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Koke | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cristian Romero | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Giuliano Simeone | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Alejandro Grimaldo | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Marcos Llorente | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Johnny Cardoso | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jon Aramburu | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 66% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 61% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 50% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Atlético Madrid 3–2 Real Sociedad Mar 2026
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Atlético Madrid Jan 2026
- Atlético Madrid 4–0 Real Sociedad May 2025
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Atlético Madrid Oct 2024
- Real Sociedad 0–2 Atlético Madrid May 2024
- Atlético Madrid 2–1 Real Sociedad Oct 2023
- Atlético Madrid 2–1 Real Sociedad May 2023
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Atlético Madrid Sep 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Real Sociedad v Atlético Madrid?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Real Sociedad v Atlético Madrid?
The most confident call it got wrong was Ademola Lookman at 92% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.