Sevilla v Almería
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sevilla beat Almería 5–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Youssef En-Nesyri for 1+ shots total (94%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Largie Ramazani for 1+ shots total (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Largie Ramazani | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Youssef En-Nesyri | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Luis Javier Suárez | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Dodi Lukebakio | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ibrahima Kone | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Boubakary Soumaré | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Erik Lamela | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Dion Lopy | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Erik Lamela | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Sergio Arribas | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dodi Lukebakio | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Arnau Puigmal | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 0 | ✗ |
| Adrià Pedrosa | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Iddrisu Baba | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 61% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 61% | 5 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 58% | 6 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Almería 2–2 Sevilla Mar 2024
- Sevilla 2–1 Almería Mar 2023
- Almería 2–1 Sevilla Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sevilla v Almería?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sevilla v Almería?
The most confident call it got wrong was Largie Ramazani at 95% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.