Sevilla v Atlético Madrid
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sevilla lost to Atlético Madrid 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Peque Fernández for 1+ fouls drawn (93%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Kang-in Lee for 1+ shots total (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peque Fernández | fouls drawn | 1+ | 93% | 4 | ✓ |
| Kang-in Lee | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Isaac Romero | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ademola Lookman | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Suazo | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Lucien Agoumé | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Juan Iglesias | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kike Salas | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Morten Hjulmand | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Marcos Llorente | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Giuliano Simeone | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lucien Agoumé | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alejandro Grimaldo | tackles | 1+ | 85% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jon Guridi | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn Shots total Tackles Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 58% | 4 goals | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 34% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sevilla 2–1 Atlético Madrid Apr 2026
- Atlético Madrid 3–0 Sevilla Nov 2025
- Sevilla 1–2 Atlético Madrid Apr 2025
- Atlético Madrid 4–3 Sevilla Dec 2024
- Sevilla 1–0 Atlético Madrid Feb 2024
- Atlético Madrid 1–0 Sevilla Dec 2023
- Atlético Madrid 6–1 Sevilla Mar 2023
- Sevilla 0–2 Atlético Madrid Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sevilla v Atlético Madrid?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sevilla v Atlético Madrid?
The most confident call it got wrong was Kang-in Lee at 92% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.