Sevilla v Valencia
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sevilla beat Valencia 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Arnaut Danjuma for 1+ shots total (92%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Harvey Elliott for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harvey Elliott | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Arnaut Danjuma | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Suazo | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| Lucien Agoumé | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kike Salas | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| José Luis Gayà | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 5 | ✓ |
| Juan Iglesias | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Isaac Romero | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lucien Agoumé | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Juan Iglesias | fouls drawn | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Robbie Ure | fouls drawn | 1+ | 84% | 1 | ✓ |
| Miguel Sierra | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pepelu | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 3 | ✓ |
| Aliou Dieng | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 7 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 70% | 3 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 50% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 48% | 1 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sevilla 0–2 Valencia Mar 2026
- Valencia 1–1 Sevilla Dec 2025
- Valencia 1–0 Sevilla Apr 2025
- Sevilla 1–1 Valencia Jan 2025
- Valencia 0–0 Sevilla Feb 2024
- Sevilla 1–2 Valencia Aug 2023
- Valencia 0–2 Sevilla Apr 2023
- Sevilla 1–1 Valencia Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sevilla v Valencia?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sevilla v Valencia?
The most confident call it got wrong was Harvey Elliott at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.