Valencia v Real Betis
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Valencia lost to Real Betis 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Antony for 1+ shots total (94%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Cucho Hernández for 1+ shots total (94%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
4 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cucho Hernández | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 0 | ✗ |
| Antony | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Isco | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Riquelme | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Umar Sadiq | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Angel Ortiz | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 5 | ✓ |
| Umar Sadiq | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Isco | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Guido Rodríguez | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 3 | ✓ |
| Pablo Maffeo | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Junior Firpo | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Riquelme | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pepelu | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jesús Vázquez | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls committed Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 50% | 1 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 42% | 3 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Real Betis 2–1 Valencia Feb 2026
- Valencia 1–1 Real Betis Nov 2025
- Real Betis 1–1 Valencia May 2025
- Valencia 4–2 Real Betis Nov 2024
- Valencia 1–2 Real Betis Apr 2024
- Real Betis 3–0 Valencia Oct 2023
- Real Betis 1–1 Valencia Jun 2023
- Valencia 3–0 Real Betis Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Valencia v Real Betis?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Valencia v Real Betis?
The most confident call it got wrong was Cucho Hernández at 94% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.