Valencia v Real Sociedad
How the SharpXI model rated this La Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Valencia lost to Real Sociedad 2–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Jon Aramburu for 1+ tackles (93%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Orri Óskarsson for 1+ shots total (92%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Aramburu | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Orri Óskarsson | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 0 | ✗ |
| Harvey Elliott | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gonçalo Guedes | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jon Aramburu | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yangel Herrera | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Guido Rodríguez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Hugo Duro | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| José Luis Gayà | tackles | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sergio Gómez | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yangel Herrera | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Aihen Muñoz | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Guido Rodríguez | tackles | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yangel Herrera | fouls committed | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls committed Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 58% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 55% | 5 cards | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 50% | 5 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Real Sociedad 3–4 Valencia May 2026
- Valencia 1–1 Real Sociedad Aug 2025
- Valencia 1–0 Real Sociedad Jan 2025
- Real Sociedad 3–0 Valencia Sep 2024
- Real Sociedad 1–0 Valencia May 2024
- Valencia 0–1 Real Sociedad Sep 2023
- Valencia 1–0 Real Sociedad Feb 2023
- Real Sociedad 1–1 Valencia Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Valencia v Real Sociedad?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Valencia v Real Sociedad?
The most confident call it got wrong was Orri Óskarsson at 92% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the La Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.