Ajaccio v Lille
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Ajaccio lost to Lille 1–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Benjamin André for 1+ fouls committed (78%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Yusuf Yazıcı for 1+ fouls drawn (72%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin André | fouls committed | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mounaim El Idrissy | fouls drawn | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Edon Zhegrova | shots total | 1+ | 77% | 1 | ✓ |
| Edon Zhegrova | fouls drawn | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Romain Hamouma | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mounaim El Idrissy | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jonathan David | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jonathan David | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jonathan Bamba | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jonathan Bamba | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 6 | ✓ |
| Edon Zhegrova | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yusuf Yazıcı | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 2 | ✓ |
| Angel Gomes | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 3 | ✓ |
| Yusuf Yazıcı | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 69% | 6 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 60% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 56% | 4 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Lille 3–0 Ajaccio Apr 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Ajaccio v Lille?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Ajaccio v Lille?
The most confident call it got wrong was Yusuf Yazıcı at 72% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.