Total shots — modelling a player's shot volume for the bet builder
Total shots (all attempts, on or off target) is a higher-volume cousin of shots on target, so the lines run 1+, 2+ and 3+. SharpXI models each line from a player's underlying shot rate and the opponent's tendency to concede shots.
How SharpXI models it
Same engine as shots on target: a recency-weighted per-90 rate, empirical-Bayes shrinkage for small samples, minutes scaling, an opponent concede-factor, and a Negative Binomial for P(shots ≥ line). The price is compared as offered — shots are quoted one side only, so the margin stays in it.
Go deeper: How we model shot volume
Where the value tends to sit
Because volume is higher, the distribution is wider — a forward who takes lots of speculative efforts can be strong value at 2+ or 3+ even when 1+ is short.
Ligue 1 — how this market behaves
Across 1,136 graded Ligue 1 predictions from the 26/27 season, a player recorded 1+ shot in 52.6% of appearances. SharpXI's model beat that base rate by 20.8% here, against UEFA Champions League 25.0%, La Liga 24.5%, UEFA Europa League 23.0%, Bundesliga 21.0%, Premier League 20.0%, Championship 19.8%, Serie A 19.6%, UEFA Nations League 17.2% and EFL Cup 16.2%
Ligue 1 leaders this season
In the 26/27 Ligue 1 season, Florian Thauvin (RC Lens) leads for total shots at 3.00 per 90, ahead of Pierre-Emile Højbjerg (2.00) and Raphaël Le Guen (1.80). Rates are per 90 minutes, minimum 450 played, from completed matches.
Per-90 rates across the league (26/27 season, minimum 450 minutes) — the players whose underlying numbers drive this market.
| Player | Team | Per 90 | 1+ hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florian Thauvin | RC Lens | 3.00 | 100% |
| Pierre-Emile Højbjerg | Olympique de Marseille | 2.00 | 80% |
| Raphaël Le Guen | Stade Brestois | 1.80 | 100% |
| Tiago Santos | Lille | 1.80 | 80% |
| Matthieu Udol | RC Lens | 1.54 | 50% |
| Corentin Tolisso | Olympique Lyonnais | 1.53 | 67% |
| Adrien Monfray | Troyes | 1.20 | 60% |
| Kévin Danois | Auxerre | 1.20 | 40% |
| Felix Bacher | Olympique Lyonnais | 1.01 | 83% |
| Ayumu Seko | Le Havre | 1.00 | 80% |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. | Toulouse | 1.00 | 60% |
| Pierre Lees Melou | Paris FC | 1.00 | 80% |
Frequently asked
Does total shots include blocked shots?
It follows the match-data provider's definition of a player's total shots, which includes attempts that are on target, off target and, per the source, blocked.
Why are there three lines for total shots?
Shot volume is high enough that 1+, 2+ and 3+ are all live markets. SharpXI models the probability of each independently rather than assuming a fixed relationship.
SharpXI is a statistical tool, not a betting operator, and no model guarantees a result. The honest scoreboard is closing-line value over a large sample. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.