Fouls won (drawn) — the market for players who get fouled
Fouls won — the free kicks a player earns — is the mirror of fouls committed. Dribblers and hold-up forwards win fouls at high rates the market often lags.
How SharpXI models it
We model the player's recency-weighted fouls-won rate with shrinkage and minutes scaling, adjusted by how often the opposition commits fouls, through a Negative Binomial for P(fouls won ≥ line), then de-vig the price with Shin's method.
Go deeper: How we model fouls won →
Where the value tends to sit
A skilful dribbler against a foul-prone defence is the classic fouls-won edge — the same match-up that drives fouls committed, seen from the other side.
Ligue 1 — how this market behaves
Across 7,817 graded Ligue 1 predictions from the 25/26 season, a player recorded 1+ foul won in 51.6% of appearances. SharpXI's model beat that base rate by 14.4% here, against La Liga 16.9%, Serie A 15.7%, Premier League 15.0% and Championship 12.7%. Match cards is this league's weakest market, and its page says so.
Ligue 1 leaders this season
In the 25/26 Ligue 1 season, Osame Sahraoui (Lille) leads for fouls won at 4.44 per 90, ahead of Rayan Fofana (3.76) and Gessime Yassine (3.33). Rates are per 90 minutes, minimum 450 played, from completed matches.
Per-90 rates across the league (25/26 season, minimum 450 minutes) — the players whose underlying numbers drive this market.
| Player | Team | Per 90 | 1+ hit |
|---|---|---|---|
| Osame Sahraoui | Lille | 4.44 | 67% |
| Rayan Fofana | RC Lens | 3.76 | 68% |
| Gessime Yassine | RC Strasbourg | 3.33 | 58% |
| Afonso Moreira | Olympique Lyonnais | 2.98 | 81% |
| Sofiane Boufal | Le Havre | 2.80 | 82% |
| Breel Embolo | Stade Rennais | 2.79 | 81% |
| Arnaud Nordin | Stade Rennais | 2.67 | 90% |
| Mohamed Kaba | Nantes | 2.63 | 67% |
| Tiago Santos | Lille | 2.60 | 67% |
| Malick Fofana | Olympique Lyonnais | 2.58 | 83% |
| Karim Dermane | Lorient | 2.58 | 63% |
| Valentín Barco | RC Strasbourg | 2.53 | 93% |
Frequently asked
What's the difference between fouls won and fouls committed?
Fouls won are the free kicks a player earns by being fouled; fouls committed are the ones they concede. They're separate markets with separate models.
Which players win the most fouls?
Typically low-centre-of-gravity dribblers and forwards who hold the ball up. The SharpXI market page lists the current Ligue 1 leaders.
SharpXI is a statistical tool, not a betting operator, and no model guarantees a result. The honest scoreboard is closing-line value over a large sample. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.