Ajaccio v Olympique de Marseille
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Ajaccio beat Olympique de Marseille 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Leonardo Balerdi for 1+ fouls committed (84%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Vitinha for 1+ fouls drawn (77%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonardo Balerdi | fouls committed | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ruslan Malinovskyi | fouls committed | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Vitinha | shots total | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vitinha | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Issa Kaboré | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Alexis Sánchez | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Nuno Tavares | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nuno Tavares | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ivane Chegra | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alexis Sánchez | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ben Hamed Toure | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 3 | ✓ |
| Cengiz Ünder | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 4 | ✓ |
| Ben Hamed Toure | shots total | 1+ | 72% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ruslan Malinovskyi | fouls drawn | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 51% | 2 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 43% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 42% | 1 goals | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Olympique de Marseille 1–2 Ajaccio Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Ajaccio v Olympique de Marseille?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Ajaccio v Olympique de Marseille?
The most confident call it got wrong was Vitinha at 77% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.