Angers v Troyes
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Angers beat Troyes 2–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Harouna Djibirin for 1+ shots total (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Amine El Ouazzani for 1+ shots total (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
2 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amine El Ouazzani | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Harouna Djibirin | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mamadou Usman Simbakoli | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jérémy Le Douaron | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jim Allevinah | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Timothé Nkada | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Antoine Mille | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Prosper Peter | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Branco Van den Boomen | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Anis Ouzenadji | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Karim Dermane | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Mouhamed Diop | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yassin Belkhdim | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Renaud Ripart | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTTS | Yes | 62% | No | ✗ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 59% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 10% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: BTTS Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Angers 2–1 Troyes May 2023
- Troyes 3–1 Angers Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Angers v Troyes?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Angers v Troyes?
The most confident call it got wrong was Amine El Ouazzani at 95% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.