AS Monaco v Ajaccio
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AS Monaco beat Ajaccio 7–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Bevic Moussiti Oko for 1+ fouls drawn (81%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Breel Embolo for 1+ fouls committed (83%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breel Embolo | fouls committed | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohamed Camara | fouls drawn | 1+ | 83% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bevic Moussiti Oko | fouls drawn | 1+ | 81% | 2 | ✓ |
| Eliesse Ben Seghir | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 3 | ✓ |
| Breel Embolo | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mohamed Camara | fouls committed | 1+ | 80% | 1 | ✓ |
| Bevic Moussiti Oko | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Youcef Belaïli | fouls drawn | 1+ | 77% | 0 | ✗ |
| Eliesse Ben Seghir | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
| Youcef Belaïli | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Youcef Belaïli | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Bevic Moussiti Oko | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Wissam Ben Yedder | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jean Fiacre Kouamé Botué | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Fouls drawn · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 66% | 3 cards | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 56% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 53% | 8 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Ajaccio 0–2 AS Monaco Mar 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AS Monaco v Ajaccio?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AS Monaco v Ajaccio?
The most confident call it got wrong was Breel Embolo at 83% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.