Metz v Olympique de Marseille
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Metz lost to Olympique de Marseille 0–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Amine Gouiri for 1+ shots total (95%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Jean-Philippe Gbamin for 1+ tackles (88%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amine Gouiri | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mason Greenwood | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 5 | ✓ |
| Boubacar Traoré | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 1 | ✓ |
| Robinio Vaz | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Igor Paixão | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Timothy Weah | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Jean-Philippe Gbamin | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Koffi Kouao | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Emerson | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leonardo Balerdi | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jessy Deminguet | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Habibou Diallo | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Sadibou Sané | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 2 | ✓ |
| Cheick Tidiane Sabaly | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 46% | 3 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 46% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 24% | 0 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Olympique de Marseille 3–1 Metz Apr 2026
- Olympique de Marseille 1–1 Metz Feb 2024
- Metz 2–2 Olympique de Marseille Aug 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Metz v Olympique de Marseille?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Metz v Olympique de Marseille?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jean-Philippe Gbamin at 88% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.