Metz v Saint-Étienne
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Metz drew with Saint-Étienne 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 14 landed — the strongest being Irvin Cardona for 1+ shots total (95%, had 3). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Irvin Cardona | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ibrahim Sissoko | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 5 | ✓ |
| Mathieu Cafaro | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 3 | ✓ |
| Nathanaël Mbuku | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Lamine Camara | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Florian Tardieu | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dylan Batubinsika | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dennis Appiah | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Lamine Fomba | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Fali Candé | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Koffi Kouao | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Matthieu Udol | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Nathanaël Mbuku | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Lamine Camara | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 10% | 8 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Saint-Étienne 2–1 Metz May 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Metz v Saint-Étienne?
14 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Metz v Saint-Étienne?
Every one of its confident calls landed this time — a single strong game, not a verdict. When the model does miss, those rows sit in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross; we never hide them.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.