Nantes v Ajaccio
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Nantes drew with Ajaccio 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Ludovic Blas for 1+ fouls drawn (82%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Mostafa Mohamed for 1+ fouls committed (75%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludovic Blas | fouls drawn | 1+ | 82% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mounaim El Idrissy | fouls committed | 1+ | 81% | 4 | ✓ |
| Mounaim El Idrissy | fouls drawn | 1+ | 80% | 4 | ✓ |
| Moussa Sissoko | fouls committed | 1+ | 77% | 2 | ✓ |
| Evann Guessand | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ludovic Blas | fouls committed | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Mostafa Mohamed | fouls committed | 1+ | 75% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mounaim El Idrissy | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Mostafa Mohamed | fouls drawn | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Romain Hamouma | shots total | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ignatius Ganago | fouls drawn | 1+ | 73% | 2 | ✓ |
| Youcef Belaïli | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 3 | ✓ |
| Ignatius Ganago | fouls committed | 1+ | 72% | 0 | ✗ |
| Youcef Belaïli | fouls drawn | 1+ | 71% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Fouls drawn · Fouls committed · Shots total
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 71% | 7 cards | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 46% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match goals | O2.5 | 39% | 4 goals | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match cards · BTTS
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Ajaccio 0–2 Nantes Feb 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Nantes v Ajaccio?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Nantes v Ajaccio?
The most confident call it got wrong was Mostafa Mohamed at 75% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.