Saint-Étienne v RC Lens
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Saint-Étienne lost to RC Lens 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Florian Sotoca for 1+ shots total (94%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Adrien Thomasson for 1+ tackles (95%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrien Thomasson | tackles | 1+ | 95% | 0 | ✗ |
| Florian Sotoca | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Remy Labeau Lascary | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| M'bala Nzola | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 2 | ✓ |
| Przemysław Frankowski | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 0 | ✗ |
| Angelo Fulgini | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Angelo Fulgini | fouls drawn | 1+ | 91% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ibrahim Sissoko | fouls committed | 1+ | 90% | 4 | ✓ |
| Louis Mouton | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ibrahim Sissoko | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 4 | ✓ |
| Adrien Thomasson | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ibrahim Sissoko | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Adrien Thomasson | fouls committed | 1+ | 87% | 0 | ✗ |
| Augustine Boakye | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 3 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 57% | 2 goals | ✗ |
| BTTS | Yes | 50% | No | ✗ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 38% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- RC Lens 1–0 Saint-Étienne Apr 2025
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Saint-Étienne v RC Lens?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Saint-Étienne v RC Lens?
The most confident call it got wrong was Adrien Thomasson at 95% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.