Saint-Étienne v Toulouse
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Saint-Étienne lost to Toulouse 2–3, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Zakaria Aboukhlal for 1+ shots total (95%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Cristian Cásseres Jr. for 1+ fouls drawn (88%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
A side with nothing left to play for changed more of its eleven last season — 71.7% of the previous starting XI retained against 75.9%, the same direction in every league measured. It does not move fouls or cards.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zakaria Aboukhlal | shots total | 1+ | 95% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ibrahima Wadji | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joshua King | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 5 | ✓ |
| Frank Magri | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dennis Appiah | tackles | 1+ | 93% | 3 | ✓ |
| Djibril Sidibé | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Benjamin Bouchouari | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yann Gboho | fouls drawn | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pierre Ekwah | fouls committed | 1+ | 87% | 1 | ✓ |
| Zuriko Davitashvili | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 4 | ✓ |
| Yann Gboho | shots total | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Irvin Cardona | shots total | 1+ | 84% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Tackles Fouls drawn Fouls committed
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match goals | O2.5 | 53% | 5 goals | ✓ |
| BTTS | Yes | 52% | Yes | ✓ |
| Match cards | O4.5 | 24% | 5 cards | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Match goals Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Toulouse 2–1 Saint-Étienne Dec 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Saint-Étienne v Toulouse?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Saint-Étienne v Toulouse?
The most confident call it got wrong was Cristian Cásseres Jr. at 88% for fouls drawn — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.