USL Dunkerque v Guingamp
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before USL Dunkerque beat Guingamp 1–0, the SharpXI model made 6 confident calls on the player markets and 4 landed — the strongest being Naatan Skyttä for 1+ fouls drawn (68%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Naatan Skyttä for 1+ fouls committed (70%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naatan Skyttä | fouls committed | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Abdoullah Ba | shots total | 1+ | 70% | 0 | ✗ |
| Naatan Skyttä | fouls drawn | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
| Abdoullah Ba | fouls drawn | 1+ | 68% | 1 | ✓ |
| Naatan Skyttä | shots total | 1+ | 66% | 1 | ✓ |
| Abdoullah Ba | fouls committed | 1+ | 64% | 1 | ✓ |
| Théo Le Bris | fouls drawn | 1+ | 44% | 0 | ✗ |
| Théo Le Bris | fouls committed | 1+ | 44% | 0 | ✗ |
| Théo Le Bris | shots total | 1+ | 42% | 1 | ✓ |
| Abdoullah Ba | shots on target | 1+ | 40% | 0 | ✗ |
| Naatan Skyttä | shots on target | 1+ | 36% | 0 | ✗ |
| Abdoullah Ba | cards | — | 26% | Not booked | ✗ |
| Ewen Jaouen | fouls drawn | 1+ | 26% | 0 | ✗ |
| Naatan Skyttä | cards | — | 15% | Not booked | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Fouls committed · Shots total · Fouls drawn · Shots on target · Cards
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on USL Dunkerque v Guingamp?
4 of its 6 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on USL Dunkerque v Guingamp?
The most confident call it got wrong was Naatan Skyttä at 70% for fouls committed — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.