USL Dunkerque v Guingamp
How the SharpXI model rated this Ligue 1 fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before USL Dunkerque beat Guingamp 1–0, the SharpXI model made 10 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Naatan Skyttä for 1+ tackles (88%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Abdoullah Ba for 1+ shots total (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naatan Skyttä | tackles | 1+ | 88% | 1 | ✓ |
| Théo Le Bris | tackles | 1+ | 83% | 1 | ✓ |
| Abdoullah Ba | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Abdoullah Ba | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Naatan Skyttä | fouls drawn | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Naatan Skyttä | shots total | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| Naatan Skyttä | fouls committed | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Abdoullah Ba | fouls committed | 1+ | 65% | 1 | ✓ |
| Abdoullah Ba | tackles | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Théo Le Bris | fouls committed | 1+ | 53% | 0 | ✗ |
| Abdoullah Ba | shots on target | 1+ | 49% | 0 | ✗ |
| Théo Le Bris | shots total | 1+ | 47% | 1 | ✓ |
| Théo Le Bris | fouls drawn | 1+ | 44% | 0 | ✗ |
| Naatan Skyttä | shots on target | 1+ | 40% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Tackles Shots total Fouls drawn Fouls committed Shots on target
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Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on USL Dunkerque v Guingamp?
7 of its 10 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on USL Dunkerque v Guingamp?
The most confident call it got wrong was Abdoullah Ba at 82% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Ligue 1?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.