Aliyar Aghayev
Over the last 4 UEFA Nations League games Aliyar Aghayev has officiated, the average is 4.50 cards a match — 13% above the league average of 3.97. That splits 4.2 yellow and 0.2 red a game — a red in 1 of the 4. The home side sees more cards — 2.0 to 2.5 a game, a sharper split than the league's 0.2 gap. 5+ cards landed in 75% of those games (3 of 4), from a 18.8% foul-to-booking rate. These are raw match figures from those games, not odds.
Match cards last 4 games
Career profile
The two numbers that matter are vs league — the multiplier the model applies to a player's booking chance — and conversion, the share of fouls Aliyar Aghayev turns into bookings. Conversion, not the raw foul count, is where a referee's real card tendency lives. Career figures across every UEFA Nations League season on record.
| Measure | Aghayev | League avg |
|---|---|---|
| Cards / match | 4.50 | 3.97 |
| vs league | 1.13× | 1.00× |
| Foul-to-card conversion | 18.8% | 17.7% |
| Fouls / match | 24.0 | 22.5 |
| Red cards shown | 1 | — |
| Matches on record | 4 (2 in 24/25) | — |
Recent matches
The last 4 UEFA Nations League games Aliyar Aghayev took charge of — the actual card and foul counts a match-cards line settles on.
| Match | Score | Cards | Y | R | Fouls |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia v Ukraine28 Sep | 0–0 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 23 |
| Bosnia & Herzegovina v Netherlands19 Nov | 1–1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 28 |
| Kosovo v Romania6 Sep | 0–3 | 7 1 red | 6 | 1 | 19 |
| San Marino v Malta5 Jun | 0–2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 26 |
● a red card in that match
Aliyar Aghayev has officiated only 4 matches on our record — a thin sample. The model shrinks a thin referee tendency toward the league average and discounts its confidence until the evidence builds, so read the numbers above gently.
Frequently asked
How many cards does Aliyar Aghayev give per game?
Aliyar Aghayev averages 4.50 cards a game across 4 UEFA Nations League matches — 13% above the league average of 3.97. That's a raw rate from only 4 matches, so the model shrinks it toward the league average rather than trusting it outright.
Is Aliyar Aghayev a strict referee?
Slightly, yes. The honest measure is foul-to-card conversion — the share of fouls that become bookings — and Aliyar Aghayev runs at 18.8% against a league average of 17.7%. Foul counts barely vary between officials; the rate at which a foul becomes a booking is where referees genuinely differ.
Does Aliyar Aghayev's record change bet builder card prices?
It should. The referee is the single biggest factor in the to-be-carded market, and the appointment is public before kick-off — so a strict official on a combative player is the archetypal card edge. The player cards guide walks through exactly how the model turns a tendency like this into a price.
How reliable is Aliyar Aghayev's card rate?
It rests on 4 career matches, still a thin sample — read it gently. The model shrinks a referee's tendency toward the league average when the sample is thin and discounts its own confidence for officials with young records, so a number like this never gets trusted beyond what the evidence earns.
Rates shown are figures from public match data for context; the model adds shrinkage and an opponent factor, and discounts its confidence for thin referee records, before flagging any card as value. It compares against the bookmaker's price as offered — card markets are priced one side only, so that price still carries the bookmaker's margin. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.