Premier League · 23/24

Luton v Nottingham Forest

How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.

Luton1 – 1 Nottingham Forest 16 Mar 2024

Model scoreboard. Of the model's 14 most-confident calls on this match, 12 landed. A single game is noise, not a verdict — but every call here was published by the same model, priced the same way. This is what an honest track record looks like.

See the full player stats board~~Both likely XIs side by side — hit rates over your chosen window, add to your slip~~ ›

Player markets — the model's calls

Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.

Player	Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Cauley Woodrow	shots total	1+	93%	0	✗
Carlton Morris	shots total	1+	93%	0	✗
Morgan Gibbs-White	shots total	1+	93%	4	✓
Divock Origi	shots total	1+	93%	3	✓
Chris Wood	shots total	1+	93%	1	✓
Anthony Elanga	shots total	1+	93%	2	✓
Andros Townsend	shots total	1+	88%	1	✓
Chiedozie Ogbene	shots total	1+	88%	1	✓
Ross Barkley	shots total	1+	88%	3	✓
Ryan Yates	fouls committed	1+	86%	1	✓
Tahith Chong	fouls drawn	1+	86%	3	✓
Ryan Yates	fouls drawn	1+	86%	2	✓
Carlton Morris	fouls drawn	1+	84%	4	✓
Chiedozie Ogbene	fouls drawn	1+	84%	2	✓

Team & match markets

Market	Line	Model	Actual	Result
Btts	Yes	54%	Yes	✓
Match goals	O2.5	53%	2 goals	✗
Match cards	O4.5	29%	3 cards	✗

Dig deeper

Luton & Nottingham Forest player stats→ Luton players & stats→ Nottingham Forest players & stats→ Shots on target model→ To be carded model→ Guide: bet builder value→

Past meetings

Nottingham Forest 2–2 Luton Oct 2023

SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.

See the track record How the model works