Sheffield United v Newcastle
How the SharpXI model rated this Premier League fixture — every call it made on shots, cards and fouls, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Sheffield United lost to Newcastle 0–8, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 13 landed — the strongest being Miguel Almirón for 1+ shots total (94%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Gustavo Hamer for 1+ tackles (84%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Callum Wilson | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 5 | ✓ |
| Miguel Almirón | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 3 | ✓ |
| Alexander Isak | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 1 | ✓ |
| Anthony Gordon | shots total | 1+ | 94% | 4 | ✓ |
| Bruno Guimarães | fouls drawn | 1+ | 92% | 2 | ✓ |
| Vinícius Souza | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 6 | ✓ |
| Oliver Norwood | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Tom Davies | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 3 | ✓ |
| Bruno Guimarães | tackles | 1+ | 91% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sean Longstaff | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Fabian Schär | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 1 | ✓ |
| Elliot Anderson | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 2 | ✓ |
| Anthony Gordon | fouls drawn | 1+ | 87% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gustavo Hamer | tackles | 1+ | 84% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Fouls drawn Tackles
Team & match markets
| Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match cards | O4.5 | 66% | 4 cards | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Match cards
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Newcastle 5–1 Sheffield United Apr 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Sheffield United v Newcastle?
13 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Sheffield United v Newcastle?
The most confident call it got wrong was Gustavo Hamer at 84% for tackles — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Premier League?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.