AVS - Futebol SAD v Casa Pia
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before AVS - Futebol SAD lost to Casa Pia 0–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Nenê for 1+ shots total (98%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Tiago Morais for 1+ shots total (98%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Morais | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nenê | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 2 | ✓ |
| Max Svensson | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Oluwakorede Osundina | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Tunde Akinsola | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Diego Duarte | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordi Escobar | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Guilherme Neiva | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rafael Barbosa | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yassin Oukili | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jérémy Livolant | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Cassiano | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pedro Lima | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Max Svensson | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Casa Pia 3–3 AVS - Futebol SAD Jan 2026
- AVS - Futebol SAD 1–1 Casa Pia Apr 2025
- Casa Pia 1–1 AVS - Futebol SAD Dec 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on AVS - Futebol SAD v Casa Pia?
7 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on AVS - Futebol SAD v Casa Pia?
The most confident call it got wrong was Tiago Morais at 98% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.