Benfica v Sporting Braga
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Benfica drew with Sporting Braga 2–2, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Vangelis Pavlidis for 1+ shots total (96%, had 4). Its clearest miss: Franjo Ivanović for 1+ shots on target (62%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vangelis Pavlidis | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 4 | ✓ |
| Franjo Ivanović | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rafa Silva | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Andreas Schjelderup | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Gianluca Prestianni | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 4 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Martínez | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pau Víctor | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Franjo Ivanović | shots on target | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Vangelis Pavlidis | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 3 | ✓ |
| Andreas Schjelderup | shots on target | 1+ | 59% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fran Navarro | shots total | 1+ | 58% | 0 | ✗ |
| Leandro Barreiro | shots total | 1+ | 54% | 1 | ✓ |
| Fredrik Aursnes | shots total | 1+ | 54% | 3 | ✓ |
| Vítor Carvalho | shots total | 1+ | 54% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sporting Braga 2–2 Benfica Dec 2025
- Sporting Braga 1–1 Benfica May 2025
- Benfica 1–2 Sporting Braga Jan 2025
- Benfica 3–1 Sporting Braga Apr 2024
- Sporting Braga 0–1 Benfica Dec 2023
- Benfica 1–0 Sporting Braga May 2023
- Sporting Braga 3–0 Benfica Dec 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Benfica v Sporting Braga?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Benfica v Sporting Braga?
The most confident call it got wrong was Franjo Ivanović at 62% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.