Benfica v Sporting CP
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Benfica drew with Sporting CP 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Luis Javier Suárez for 1+ shots total (98%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Geny Catamo for 1+ shots total (79%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luis Javier Suárez | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pedro Gonçalves | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Francisco Trincão | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Vangelis Pavlidis | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Geny Catamo | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pedro Gonçalves | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Luis Javier Suárez | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Leandro Barreiro | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Richard Ríos | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Geovany Quenda | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Vangelis Pavlidis | shots on target | 1+ | 59% | 1 | ✓ |
| João Simões | shots total | 1+ | 58% | 0 | ✗ |
| Georgiy Sudakov | shots total | 1+ | 58% | 3 | ✓ |
| Fredrik Aursnes | shots total | 1+ | 51% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sporting CP 1–2 Benfica Apr 2026
- Benfica 1–1 Sporting CP May 2025
- Sporting CP 1–0 Benfica Dec 2024
- Sporting CP 2–1 Benfica Apr 2024
- Benfica 2–1 Sporting CP Nov 2023
- Sporting CP 2–2 Benfica May 2023
- Benfica 2–2 Sporting CP Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Benfica v Sporting CP?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Benfica v Sporting CP?
The most confident call it got wrong was Geny Catamo at 79% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.