Boavista v FC Porto
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Boavista lost to FC Porto 1–2, the SharpXI model made 12 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Samu Aghehowa for 1+ shots total (98%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Stephen Eustaquio for 1+ shots total (54%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samu Aghehowa | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 5 | ✓ |
| Fábio Vieira | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 4 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Mora | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Róbert Boženík | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Samu Aghehowa | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 3 | ✓ |
| Abdoulay Diaby | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Pepê | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Mora | shots on target | 1+ | 59% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alan Varela | shots total | 1+ | 54% | 0 | ✗ |
| João Mário | shots total | 1+ | 54% | 0 | ✗ |
| Miguel Reisinho | shots total | 1+ | 54% | 4 | ✓ |
| Stephen Eustaquio | shots total | 1+ | 54% | 0 | ✗ |
| Fábio Vieira | shots on target | 1+ | 48% | 1 | ✓ |
| Salvador Agra | shots total | 1+ | 47% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Porto 4–0 Boavista Dec 2024
- FC Porto 2–1 Boavista May 2024
- Boavista 1–1 FC Porto Jan 2024
- FC Porto 1–0 Boavista Apr 2023
- Boavista 1–4 FC Porto Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Boavista v FC Porto?
9 of its 12 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Boavista v FC Porto?
The most confident call it got wrong was Stephen Eustaquio at 54% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.