Casa Pia v CF Estrela Amadora
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Casa Pia lost to CF Estrela Amadora 3–5, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Kikas for 1+ shots total (96%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Kelian Nsona for 1+ shots total (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jovane Cabral | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kikas | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kelian Nsona | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jérémy Livolant | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Sidny Lopes Cabral | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 5 | ✓ |
| Jorge Meireles | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Oumar Ngom | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Cassiano | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kikas | shots on target | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gaizka Larrazabal | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Renato Nhaga | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Abraham Marcus | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
| Kelian Nsona | shots on target | 1+ | 59% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jérémy Livolant | shots on target | 1+ | 59% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- CF Estrela Amadora 4–0 Casa Pia Mar 2026
- Casa Pia 1–0 CF Estrela Amadora Feb 2025
- CF Estrela Amadora 0–1 Casa Pia Aug 2024
- CF Estrela Amadora 3–1 Casa Pia Mar 2024
- Casa Pia 0–1 CF Estrela Amadora Oct 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Casa Pia v CF Estrela Amadora?
7 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Casa Pia v CF Estrela Amadora?
The most confident call it got wrong was Kelian Nsona at 86% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.