Casa Pia v Chaves
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Casa Pia beat Chaves 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Felippe Cardoso for 1+ shots total (98%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Felippe Cardoso for 1+ shots on target (69%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Lacximicant | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 1 | ✓ |
| Felippe Cardoso | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 2 | ✓ |
| Héctor Hernández | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Nuno Moreira | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yuki Soma | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Telasco Segovia | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Raphael Guzzo | shots total | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| André Lacximicant | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Felippe Cardoso | shots on target | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kelechi Nwakali | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 3 | ✓ |
| Helder Morim | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 2 | ✓ |
| Yuki Soma | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 1 | ✓ |
| Héctor Hernández | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nuno Moreira | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Chaves 1–3 Casa Pia Dec 2023
- Chaves 1–0 Casa Pia Apr 2023
- Casa Pia 1–2 Chaves Nov 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Casa Pia v Chaves?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Casa Pia v Chaves?
The most confident call it got wrong was Felippe Cardoso at 69% for shots on target — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.