Casa Pia v Rio Ave
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Casa Pia drew with Rio Ave 1–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 7 landed — the strongest being Diogo Bezerra for 1+ shots total (96%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Tamblé Monteiro for 1+ shots total (98%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tamblé Monteiro | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 0 | ✗ |
| Diogo Bezerra | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dario Špikić | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jalen Blesa | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Dailon Rocha Livramento | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Gaizka Larrazabal | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 6 | ✓ |
| Jérémy Livolant | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Antonis Papakanellos | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Andreas Ndoj | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jalen Blesa | shots on target | 1+ | 62% | 1 | ✓ |
| Dailon Rocha Livramento | shots on target | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tamblé Monteiro | shots on target | 1+ | 62% | 0 | ✗ |
| Dario Špikić | shots on target | 1+ | 59% | 0 | ✗ |
| Diogo Bezerra | shots on target | 1+ | 59% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Rio Ave 3–1 Casa Pia Jan 2026
- Casa Pia 2–1 Rio Ave Mar 2025
- Rio Ave 2–2 Casa Pia Nov 2024
- Rio Ave 1–0 Casa Pia Feb 2024
- Casa Pia 1–1 Rio Ave Sep 2023
- Rio Ave 1–1 Casa Pia Apr 2023
- Casa Pia 1–0 Rio Ave Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Casa Pia v Rio Ave?
7 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Casa Pia v Rio Ave?
The most confident call it got wrong was Tamblé Monteiro at 98% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.