Casa Pia v Santa Clara
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Casa Pia lost to Santa Clara 0–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 6 landed — the strongest being Gonçalo Paciência for 1+ shots total (98%, had 5). Its clearest miss: Vinícius Lopes for 1+ shots total (96%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gonçalo Paciência | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 5 | ✓ |
| Brenner | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luis Fernando | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Benjamin Pauwels | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Vinícius Lopes | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Mohamed Salah El Boukammiri | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Henrique Araújo | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Tiago Ribeiro | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| José Tavares | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Gonçalo Paciência | shots on target | 1+ | 75% | 1 | ✓ |
| João Rêgo | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Selvi Clúa | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Vitinho | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| João Vasconcelos | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Casa Pia 0–0 Santa Clara Apr 2026
- Santa Clara 1–0 Casa Pia Dec 2025
- Santa Clara 2–1 Casa Pia Feb 2025
- Casa Pia 0–2 Santa Clara Aug 2024
- Casa Pia 2–1 Santa Clara Jan 2023
- Santa Clara 0–0 Casa Pia Aug 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Casa Pia v Santa Clara?
6 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Casa Pia v Santa Clara?
The most confident call it got wrong was Vinícius Lopes at 96% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.