CF Estrela Amadora v Moreirense
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before CF Estrela Amadora drew with Moreirense 0–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 10 landed — the strongest being Luís Semedo for 1+ shots total (96%, had 1). Its clearest miss: Kikas for 1+ shots total (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luís Semedo | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jovane Cabral | shots total | 1+ | 92% | 3 | ✓ |
| Guilherme Schettine | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 2 | ✓ |
| Kikas | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Abraham Marcus | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Ianis Stoica | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Benny | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 3 | ✓ |
| Sidny Lopes Cabral | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Diogo Travassos | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 2 | ✓ |
| Oumar Ngom | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 2 | ✓ |
| Landerson | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alan | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Alonso | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Luís Semedo | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Moreirense 3–2 CF Estrela Amadora May 2026
- Moreirense 1–1 CF Estrela Amadora Mar 2025
- CF Estrela Amadora 2–1 Moreirense Sep 2024
- Moreirense 2–2 CF Estrela Amadora Apr 2024
- CF Estrela Amadora 0–1 Moreirense Nov 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on CF Estrela Amadora v Moreirense?
10 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on CF Estrela Amadora v Moreirense?
The most confident call it got wrong was Kikas at 86% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.