Chaves v FC Arouca
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Chaves lost to FC Arouca 1–5, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 8 landed — the strongest being Rafa Mújica for 1+ shots total (98%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Jô Batista for 1+ shots total (96%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa Mújica | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 3 | ✓ |
| Cristo González | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 2 | ✓ |
| Jason | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jô Batista | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 0 | ✗ |
| Yusuf Lawal | shots total | 1+ | 90% | 0 | ✗ |
| Leandro Sanca | shots total | 1+ | 89% | 0 | ✗ |
| Alfonso Trezza | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| Paulo Victor | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 0 | ✗ |
| Morlaye Sylla | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rafa Mújica | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 2 | ✓ |
| Cristo González | shots on target | 1+ | 76% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jason | shots on target | 1+ | 69% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pedro Santos | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Kelechi Nwakali | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- FC Arouca 0–2 Chaves Oct 2023
- FC Arouca 1–0 Chaves May 2023
- Chaves 1–1 FC Arouca Jan 2023
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Chaves v FC Arouca?
8 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Chaves v FC Arouca?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jô Batista at 96% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.