Estoril Praia v AVS - Futebol SAD
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Estoril Praia beat AVS - Futebol SAD 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 11 landed — the strongest being Yanis Begraoui for 1+ shots total (96%, had 2). Its clearest miss: Jordan Holsgrove for 1+ shots total (82%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
8 matches on record — too few to quote a card rate against. See the record
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yanis Begraoui | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Diego Duarte | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tunde Akinsola | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Guilherme Neiva | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 2 | ✓ |
| Diogo Spencer | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Jordan Holsgrove | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 0 | ✗ |
| Rafael Barbosa | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| Tomané | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 1 | ✓ |
| João Carvalho | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 3 | ✓ |
| Rafik Guitane | shots total | 1+ | 79% | 2 | ✓ |
| Bruno Lourenço | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 0 | ✗ |
| Nodar Lominadze | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yanis Begraoui | shots on target | 1+ | 69% | 0 | ✗ |
| Diogo Spencer | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 1 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- AVS - Futebol SAD 3–0 Estoril Praia Feb 2026
- AVS - Futebol SAD 0–3 Estoril Praia Apr 2025
- Estoril Praia 0–0 AVS - Futebol SAD Nov 2024
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Estoril Praia v AVS - Futebol SAD?
11 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Estoril Praia v AVS - Futebol SAD?
The most confident call it got wrong was Jordan Holsgrove at 82% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.