Estoril Praia v Gil Vicente
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Estoril Praia beat Gil Vicente 3–1, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 12 landed — the strongest being Yanis Begraoui for 1+ shots total (98%, had 3). Its clearest miss: Joelson Fernandes for 1+ shots total (86%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gustavo Varela | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 4 | ✓ |
| Yanis Begraoui | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 3 | ✓ |
| Luís Esteves | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Alejandro Marqués | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Murilo | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 3 | ✓ |
| Agustín Moreira | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 2 | ✓ |
| Santi García | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Joelson Fernandes | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 0 | ✗ |
| João Carvalho | shots total | 1+ | 78% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yanis Begraoui | shots on target | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Gustavo Varela | shots on target | 1+ | 75% | 2 | ✓ |
| Rafik Guitane | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 1 | ✓ |
| Murilo | shots on target | 1+ | 62% | 1 | ✓ |
| Agustín Moreira | shots on target | 1+ | 61% | 0 | ✗ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Gil Vicente 2–0 Estoril Praia Sep 2025
- Gil Vicente 1–2 Estoril Praia Feb 2025
- Estoril Praia 0–0 Gil Vicente Aug 2024
- Estoril Praia 1–3 Gil Vicente Feb 2024
- Gil Vicente 5–3 Estoril Praia Sep 2023
- Estoril Praia 1–0 Gil Vicente Mar 2023
- Gil Vicente 0–1 Estoril Praia Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Estoril Praia v Gil Vicente?
12 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Estoril Praia v Gil Vicente?
The most confident call it got wrong was Joelson Fernandes at 86% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.