Estoril Praia v Sporting Braga
How the SharpXI model rated this Primeira Liga fixture — every call it made on shots, set against what actually happened on the day.
Before Estoril Praia beat Sporting Braga 1–0, the SharpXI model made 14 confident calls on the player markets and 9 landed — the strongest being Rodrigo Zalazar for 1+ shots total (98%, had 2). Its clearest miss: João Carvalho for 1+ shots total (74%, had 0). Every probability here was published before kick-off, priced the same way as every other fixture — one game is noise, not a verdict.
Player markets — the model's calls
Each probability is the model's own number for the headline (1+) line, before any bookmaker margin. The result column is what the player actually recorded.
| Player | Market | Line | Model | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Zalazar | shots total | 1+ | 98% | 2 | ✓ |
| Ricardo Horta | shots total | 1+ | 96% | 1 | ✓ |
| Pau Víctor | shots total | 1+ | 88% | 3 | ✓ |
| André Lacximicant | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 3 | ✓ |
| Gabriel Martínez | shots total | 1+ | 86% | 1 | ✓ |
| Yanis Begraoui | shots total | 1+ | 82% | 7 | ✓ |
| João Carvalho | shots total | 1+ | 74% | 0 | ✗ |
| Ricardo Horta | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 1 | ✓ |
| Rodrigo Zalazar | shots on target | 1+ | 73% | 0 | ✗ |
| Vítor Carvalho | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Jean-Baptiste Gorby | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Diego Rodrigues | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 3 | ✓ |
| Jordan Holsgrove | shots total | 1+ | 63% | 0 | ✗ |
| Pau Víctor | shots on target | 1+ | 62% | 2 | ✓ |
How these are modelled: Shots total Shots on target
Dig deeper
Past meetings
- Sporting Braga 1–0 Estoril Praia Sep 2026
- Sporting Braga 1–1 Estoril Praia May 2026
- Estoril Praia 0–2 Sporting Braga Apr 2025
- Sporting Braga 2–2 Estoril Praia Dec 2024
- Estoril Praia 0–1 Sporting Braga Apr 2024
- Sporting Braga 3–1 Estoril Praia Dec 2023
- Sporting Braga 4–1 Estoril Praia Apr 2023
- Estoril Praia 0–2 Sporting Braga Oct 2022
Frequently asked
How did the SharpXI model do on Estoril Praia v Sporting Braga?
9 of its 14 most-confident calls landed. The board on this page lists every one with the model's pre-kickoff probability next to what actually happened, hits and misses in the same table.
What did the model get wrong on Estoril Praia v Sporting Braga?
The most confident call it got wrong was João Carvalho at 74% for shots total — shown in the same table as the hits, marked with a cross. A record that hides its misses isn't a record, so we don't.
Are these probabilities hindsight?
No. Each one is the number the model produced from data available before kick-off, using the same settings as every other fixture on the site — nothing was refitted after the result. That is the only way a per-match report means anything.
Does one match tell you if the model is any good in the Primeira Liga?
No, and we'd rather say so. A single fixture is a handful of calls and mostly noise; the season-long, market-by-market record — including the markets that fail to beat a naive guess — is on the track record page.
SharpXI models probabilities from public match data; it does not take bets or guarantee outcomes. Prices are entered per leg in the tool. 18+ — please gamble responsibly.